Gold to stay volatile but strong; $5,000 target in sight, says Kama Jewelry MD
Shah explained, “Gold has been volatile and will continue to be volatile. With everything being the way it is, gold is the safest haven, and looks like it’s on its way to $5,000 for sure, maybe it’s in the next 12 months, 15 months, but it’s on this northwards journey.”
With prices staying elevated, jewellery volumes in India have softened. Shah noted, “Volumes were significantly down during Diwali… the consumer is holding back on the number of grams they’re wanting to buy.” However, the value of sales remains stable because prices are up 35–40%.
He added that a “greater chunk” of demand is now moving toward ETFs, digital gold, bars, and coins. Jewellery, he estimates, has seen volumes fall around 10–15% this year.
On import trends, Shah said monthly fluctuations will happen, but overall tonnage for FY26 is likely to stay close to last year. The larger change is in the mix: more bullion for investment and less pure jewellery buying.
Even with high prices, the upcoming wedding season should lift sentiment. “Bridal will be strong… December to March is quite a spike,” Shah said. Many consumers delayed buying after Diwali hoping for a correction, but prices have not cooled. He expects sales to pick up soon, though “volumes are subdued, values will be made up.”
Exports continue to hold up well as global markets reopen and routing patterns stabilise. The US, India’s biggest jewellery market, is performing better than expected. “The industry was expecting a softer Christmas, but it seems like numbers will be more or less what they were last year,” Shah said.
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