If you’ve been watching Coeur Mining lately, you probably have questions about whether now is the moment to jump in or sit back and let things settle. With the stock up an astonishing 200.8% year-to-date and 176.7% over the past year, it’s no surprise that investors are taking notice. But not all the headlines have been bright. Just in the last week, Coeur Mining shares stumbled, dropping 15.3%, after a run that saw three-year gains rocket by 393.4%. This volatility is largely tied to the broader sector’s renewed energy and recent advances at Coeur’s Rochester mine, which have signaled both confidence in future output and a changing risk profile.
When you look at a five-year return of 152.0%, it’s clear there’s been transformative change behind the scenes. Some investors have gotten nervous about the pace of the rally or whether it’s already priced in all the good news. Recent project updates have brought fresh optimism about projected production increases but have also put a spotlight on the risks, with the price swings reflecting shifting appetites for risk and reward.
That leads us to valuation, which is often at the heart of every debate about the next big mining winner. According to our valuation process, Coeur Mining scores a 0 out of 6 when it comes to being undervalued. This means it currently does not check any of the major value boxes. But is that the full story? Up next, we’ll walk through the traditional valuation approaches to see what they reveal, and then explore a perspective that could provide an even sharper view on where the real value might lie.
Coeur Mining scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is a classic valuation approach that estimates a company’s intrinsic value by forecasting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. In Coeur Mining’s case, the model looks at the company’s ability to generate Free Cash Flow (FCF), projecting growth and balancing it against expected risks over time.
Currently, Coeur Mining reports a trailing 12-month Free Cash Flow of $41.8 Million. Analysts anticipate substantial growth in FCF over the coming years, with cash flow projected to climb as high as $919.2 Million by 2026. Over a ten-year period, with projections from both analysts and model-driven estimates extending out to 2035, FCF is expected to gradually taper to $352 Million. All cash flow figures are denominated in dollars ($).
According to the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity DCF model, this trajectory yields an intrinsic value estimate of $11.15 per share. However, the current trading price is significantly above this level, reflecting a 67.2% premium to intrinsic value. In other words, the share price suggests the market is pricing in more upside than fundamentals alone may justify.
For companies like Coeur Mining that are consistently generating profits, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a tried-and-true valuation tool. The PE ratio helps investors assess how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings, making it especially useful when comparing companies across the same industry or for tracking how a market values profitability over time.
What counts as a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio, however, is not set in stone. It shifts based on factors like expected earnings growth, perceived risk, and market conditions. High-growth companies or those with lower risk may deserve a higher ratio, while slower-growing or riskier firms typically trade at lower multiples.
Right now, Coeur Mining’s PE ratio stands at a lofty 62.9x. That is well above both the Metals and Mining industry average of 25.2x, and the peer average of 20.3x. To add more context, Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio,” which digs deeper by factoring in earnings growth, margins, market cap, and company-specific risks, suggests a fair PE for Coeur Mining would be 52.7x. Unlike simple peer or industry comparisons, the Fair Ratio offers a more comprehensive benchmark because it accounts for the nuances of the company’s outlook and fundamentals, not just headline numbers.
With its current PE ratio just moderately higher than the Fair Ratio, Coeur Mining is trading at a premium, but not dramatically so. The valuation looks close to justified given the company’s growth profile and risk factors.
Earlier, we mentioned that there’s an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, user-driven story that connects your personal view on a company, such as future revenue, earnings, and margin expectations, to a financial forecast and, ultimately, to your own fair value estimate. Narratives do more than crunch numbers; they help you express why you believe a company is worth a certain price, blending facts and forecasts with your investing perspective.
Millions of investors are already using Simply Wall St’s Narratives, available on the Community page, to clarify how news, earnings, and sector shifts impact their insights in real time. Narratives let you see at a glance if the current market price looks high, low, or about right based on your forecast, and update dynamically as new information arrives.
For example, with Coeur Mining, one investor’s Narrative might be highly optimistic, seeing robust demand, improved margins, and assigning a fair value closer to $20 per share. Another, more cautious investor might emphasize operational risks and set their fair value nearer $12. In this way, Narratives transform complex data into your actionable story, empowering smarter buy or sell decisions that align with your unique view.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
