A Look at Agios Pharmaceuticals’s Valuation After Mixed Results From RISE UP Mitapivat Trial (AGIO)

Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) released results from its Phase 3 RISE UP study for mitapivat in sickle cell disease. The trial met its primary hemoglobin response endpoint, but it fell short on reducing pain crises, a crucial secondary goal.

See our latest analysis for Agios Pharmaceuticals.

The announcement of mixed but significant results from the RISE UP trial sent Agios Pharmaceuticals’ share price sharply downward, falling over 48% this week and now down nearly 30% for the year. Over the past year, the total shareholder return has slumped by 59%, reflecting growing market skepticism about the company’s prospects even as regulatory discussions for mitapivat continue.

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With shares trading well below analyst targets after a steep selloff, the question for investors is whether Agios Pharmaceuticals is now undervalued, or if the market has already accounted for future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 47.2% Undervalued

Agios Pharmaceuticals’ most popular valuation narrative places its fair value significantly higher than the last close price of $22.34, offering a much more optimistic perspective than current market sentiment. This view is based on the company’s upcoming regulatory decisions and pipeline catalysts, which are seen as potential turning points for future growth.

Upcoming potential FDA approval and commercial launch of PYRUKYND for thalassemia in the U.S. could significantly expand Agios’ addressable market. This is supported by the high rate of disease diagnosis through newborn screening and well-defined patient populations, which may boost revenue growth in the coming years.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how a single regulatory milestone could change the narrative around Agios? One assertive assumption about future profitability drives this valuation. Interested in how bold revenue projections and profit multiples create a price target that differs from the market? The answer is just a click away.

Result: Fair Value of $42.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing high R&D costs and setbacks in mitapivat’s clinical uptake could quickly undermine optimism around Agios Pharmaceuticals’ growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Agios Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Another View: Revenue Multiple Raises Caution

While some see Agios Pharmaceuticals as undervalued, comparing its price-to-sales ratio of 29.1x against the US Biotechs industry average of 11.8x and a peer average of just 4x tells a different story. This large gap points to higher valuation risk unless the company delivers outsized growth down the line. Could the market be too optimistic, or is this the premium for future breakthroughs?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Agios Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you’d rather dig into the details and build your own view, you can quickly craft a personalized analysis in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Agios Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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