BTC Price Holds $90K as Oversold Signal Hints at Potential Short Squeeze: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market remains choppy, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) little changed on a 24-hour basis and the bitcoin
But this price action actually validates the oversold conditions signaled by the relative strength index (RSI) on Tuesday, when BTC first explored lows under $90,000. On the same day, CoinDesk flagged that the RSI reading needs validation from those signature doji candles — the ones with lower wicks — that tell you sellers might be losing their grip.
Guess what? Those clues showed up in the form of back-to-back daily candles with long lower wicks (Check the TA section), signaling bears’ failure to keep prices below $90,000. Coupled with the oversold RSI, it looks like the downtrend might be running out of gas.
The timing of this signal couldn’t be more interesting, because the much-delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for September is scheduled for release later today.
To be sure, it’s old news. Plus, the Labor Department has said it won’t release the October report, which could deepen the divide at the Fed over interest-rate cuts. But while there is a high chance the market will disregard this figure, the crypto market right now is battered and bruised, starved for good news.
Market sentiment is crushed, fear is rampant and bitcoin’s already dropped 30% from its $126K record high. Investors are camped out on the bearish side and have scaled back expectations of a Fed rate cut to 30% from 98% a month ago.
This is precisely the set up where a piece of good news — a massively weak payroll data that boosts rate-cut bets, for example — can trigger a short squeeze and a rally. So, with all these pieces in place, don’t be surprised if we see some bullish volatility lighting up the market.
In other key news items worth noting, Ripple executives are openly discussing the possibility of introducing native staking on the XRP Ledger to expand XRP’s role in DeFi.
Base co-founder Jesse Pollak announced on X that his personal token, JESSE, will launch on the Base App, expanding the layer-2’s ecosystem.
In traditional markets, the yen continued weakening against the dollar even as domestic government bond yields surged, a sign of fiscal stress reflecting in FX markets. Traders are closely watching for signs the Bank of Japan might intervene to stop the currency’s slide. Stay alert.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Nov. 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Oct. PPI. Headline YoY (Prev. 5.5%), MoM (Est. 0.3%.
- Nov. 20, 8:30 a.m.: Nov. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Est. -3.1.
- Nov. 20, 8:30 a.m.: The delayed U.S. Sept. jobs report is expected to be released.
- Nov. 20, 10 a.m.: U.S. Oct. Existing Home Sales Est. 4.08M.
- Nov. 20, 11 a.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook speech on “Financial Stability.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Nov. 20: Webull (BULL), post-market, $ 0.02.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 1.5% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $91,891.98 (24hrs: +0.48%)
- ETH is up 0.69% at $3,009.62 (24hrs: -2.6%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.79% at 2,950.83 (24hrs: -0.55%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 9 bps at 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0073% (8.0088% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 100.18
- Gold futures are down 0.52% at $4,061.70
- Silver futures are down 0.38% at $50.66
- Nikkei 225 closed up 2.65% at 49,823.94
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,835.57
- FTSE is up 0.72% at 9,575.42
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.94% at 5,594.21
- DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.10% at 46,138.77
- S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 6,642.16
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.59% at 22,564.23
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.81% at 30,278.41
- S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,070.06
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.8 bps at 4.139%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.09% at 6,734.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.42% at 25,072.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.54% at 46,458.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.29% (+0.01%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03278 (-0.81%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,070 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $38.22
- Total fees: 3.33 BTC / $302,253
- CME Futures Open Interest: 133,250 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 22.6 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 6.14%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows BTC’s daily price action in the candlestick format with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) in the lower panel.
- Back-to-back daily candles with long tails (wicks) indicate failure by bears to keep prices below $90,000.
- This, coupled with the oversold reading on the RSI, suggests scope for a price bounce.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $257.29 (-1.72%), +1.83% at $261.99 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $69.72 (-8.98%), +1.31% at $70.63
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.76 (+0.7%), +3.45% at $26.65
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.39 (-3.63%), +0.85% at $36.70
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.1 (-6.57%), +3.60% at $11.50
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.35 (-4.23%), +3% at $13.75
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.39 (-0.26%), +7.47% at $16.54
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.22 (-5.46%), +4.11% at $10.64
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.4 (-3.42%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.48 (-7.48%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $186.5 (-9.82%), +2.7% at $191.54
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $19.73 (-8.28%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.87 (-6.45%), +2.84% at $10.15
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.69 (-7.72%), +8.18% at $2.91
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.78 (-7.77%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $75.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $58.28 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$37.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.86 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.25 million
Source: Farside Investors
