Exploring the factors behind the rise and market drivers
Historical Gold Price Trends
Historically, gold futures prices have been highly volatile, particularly when adjusted for inflation. Notable trends over various periods include:
• From April 1934 to July 1970, gold decreased by over 65% in a long-term downtrend.
• From July 1970 to January 1980, gold surged by nearly 850%.
• From January 1980 to February 2001, gold dropped 82%.
• From February 2001 to September 2025, gold increased by 591%.
Holding gold could expose you to similar long-term trends. It’s crucial to carefully determine the investment ratio. In periods of stagnation or recession, gold positions can weigh down overall portfolio returns. If this is seen as a concern, a lower allocation might be more suitable. On the other hand, if you accept years when gold underperforms in the short term for the opportunity in good years, a higher allocation could be appropriate.
Current Gold Price Movement
As of September 2025, gold futures prices have risen by 46%, driven by several factors, including the new US import tax structure, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and a weakening US dollar. This has prompted central banks worldwide to increase their gold holdings to diversify risk away from the dollar.
Gold Price Forecast for 2026
In June 2025, J.P. Morgan predicted that gold prices would reach $3,675 per ounce in Q4. This target was surpassed in September. The same analysis estimates that gold prices in Q4 of 2026 could reach $4,250 per ounce.
However, experts differ in their forecasts. According to a Reuters compilation of 11 gold price estimates, gold prices in 2026 could range from $2,850 to $4,025 per ounce, depending on global economic trends and future geopolitical situations.
