Fortuna Mining (TSX:FVI) Surges After Diamba Sud Shows US$563M NPV and 72 Percent IRR

• On October 15, 2025, Fortuna Mining Corp. announced results from the Preliminary Economic Assessment for its Diamba Sud Gold Project in Senegal, highlighting an after-tax NPV5% of US$563 million, an IRR of 72 percent, and a projected ten-month payback at a gold price of US$2,750 per ounce.
• The study indicated strong potential for rapid value creation and efficient capital investment, underpinned by Fortuna’s solid liquidity position and robust cash flow generation.
• Now, we’ll explore how Diamba Sud’s compelling project economics may influence Fortuna Mining’s medium-term growth outlook and risk profile.

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Fortuna Mining Investment Narrative Recap

To consider Fortuna Mining as an investment, you have to believe that its focused strategy on high-margin gold growth projects like Diamba Sud, paired with disciplined capital allocation, will offset the recent decline in diversification following mine sales. The newly reported Preliminary Economic Assessment for Diamba Sud, with its robust project economics, becomes the most important short-term catalyst, potentially reducing the immediate risk from production concentration, though permitting and construction execution remain crucial hurdles. Short-term, this news meaningfully shifts the company’s risk profile, making project advancement and timely development at Diamba Sud the main items of interest.

Earlier this month, Fortuna filed its Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) for the Diamba Sud Gold Project, a step that closely aligns with and supports the positive PEA results. This ESIA filing marks essential progress towards regulatory approval and de-risks a key catalyst, since permitting milestones now become the necessary next step for realizing project value in the timeline signaled by the PEA.

Yet, investors should also be mindful that, despite these advances, some risks around permitting and regulatory outcomes could still limit project delivery…

Read the full narrative on Fortuna Mining (it’s free!)

Fortuna Mining’s outlook projects $1.0 billion in revenue and $235.3 million in earnings by 2028. This implies a 4.5% annual revenue decline and a $64.1 million increase in earnings from $171.2 million today.

Uncover how Fortuna Mining’s forecasts yield a CA$12.51 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Fortuna Mining range from US$9.80 to US$12.51 per share, reflecting wide differences in growth expectations. With fortress-like liquidity now supporting the Diamba Sud catalyst, consider how much these individual outlooks could shift as the story develops, alternative views may highlight aspects missed in consensus forecasts.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Fortuna Mining – why the stock might be worth as much as 11% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
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Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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