Gold could hit $4,300 per ounce by end of 2026 driven by central bank purchases: Goldman Sachs

Gold prices are showing no signs of slowing down, having breached the $3,800 per ounce mark after surging 12% in September, marking the metal’s strongest monthly performance in 14 years. Silver has also been on a tear, trading at 14-year highs, up 65% so far in 2025 and on track for its best yearly gain in a decade.

Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC-TV18 that the rally is likely to continue. “We see the gold price exceeding $4,000 per ounce from the summer of next year onwards. And I think the risks are skewed towards reaching that target earlier than our baseline,” he said. He added that by the end of 2026, gold could reach around $4,300 per ounce.

Central bank purchases have been the main driver of the sharp rise in gold prices, Struyven said. “Central banks are now buying roughly 80 tonnes per month. That is about five times faster than before 2022. Several important Asian and emerging market central banks are still underweight gold and have significant room to increase their reserves,” he explained. He expects central banks to continue buying at a rapid pace for the next three years, pushing gold prices even higher.

Growing expectations of additional US Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year have further supported the safe-haven demand for gold. Prices have also been buoyed by concerns over a possible US government shutdown.

While silver has outperformed gold this year, Struyven noted that the gold-to-silver ratio remains historically high due to central banks focusing on gold. “Central banks are not buying silver because silver is more abundant and less precious. That said, if investors rotate from gold into silver, there is significant upside for silver prices,” he said.

The rally in gold and silver comes amid a backdrop of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, as investors seek safe-haven assets. With both central bank demand and potential private sector diversification into precious metals, analysts see the gold market poised for further gains in the coming years.

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