Gold has never outperformed stocks by this much absent a crisis
There’s something highly unusual about gold’s recent breakneck performance: It’s happening at a time when stocks are also doing well — and there isn’t a crisis. Futures contracts tied to the precious metal are up 61% year to date, while the S & P 500 has risen 14%. Barclays’ trading desk noted that this “makes equity performance relative to the yellow metal the worst since 2008, the 7th worst year of all time in relative terms (2002, 1979, 1977, 1974, 1973 were the other incidents).” What makes this time around so much more notable is that all the other instances of gold outperformance happened in bear markets for stocks or during major economic crises. Gold is usually seen as a safe haven, so it makes sense for it to outperform the S & P 500 during stock market or economic downturns. @GC.1 .SPX YTD mountain SPX and gold year to date But this time, gold has skyrocketed in 2025 while stocks have also chugged along, reaching record levels. The metal climbed above $4,200 an ounce for the first time this month while the S & P 500 topped 6,700 earlier in October for the first time as well. What does this mean for investors? Here’s what Barclays traders said: “At a minimum, it illustrates that in a world of narratives around inflating assets/debasing currency, U.S. equities are arguably not (yet) the worst offender in 2025. Or at best, to flip the story on its head, for all the chat of an equity bubble it is in fact gold [where] investors should be more worried about exuberance ending abruptly.” For his part, Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund coverage at Goldman Sachs, advised clients not to bet against the precious metal, at least for now. Gold “just keeps going and going,” he said, adding it’s “as close to the perfect asset in 2025 as one could reasonably ask for: tracking up 9-of-10 months and +60% YTD.” “Whether it’s a function of inelastic demand (principally from central banks) or the fact that it doesn’t necessarily sit on levered balance sheets, the steadiness of the trade is notable,” Pasquariello said. “I don’t know where it ends up — such is life with an asset that has no intrinsic value and no yield — but I’m certainly not inclined to pick a fight with the prevailing trend.” ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
