Gold stocks with the greatest upside potential

What are we looking for?

Gold is considered a safe-haven investment during times of turmoil and has held its value in three of the last four recessions. We have seen the price of gold climb 41 per cent over the past 12 months, and some gold stocks have more than doubled in price in that time period, with a number of them moving up substantially in just the past two months. Do they have more room to run? Let’s look at what the Stockcalc models are telling us for valuations here.

The screen

We used Stockcalc’s screener to select the top 10 listed gold mining companies by market capitalization on the TSX. We then used Stockcalc’s valuation tools to calculate fundamental (or intrinsic) valuation for each stock to see if it is undervalued or overvalued.

Overview of the techniques used:

• Discounted cash flow (DCF value) is a valuation technique in which cash-flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share;
• A price comparables (price comps) technique values the company on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies;
• An adjusted book value (ABV) is calculated by multiplying book value per share by its 10-year average price-to-book ratio.
• If we have analyst coverage, we may consider the consensus target price.

More about Stockcalc

Stockcalc is a fundamental valuation platform with tools to calculate and report on value per share for thousands of public companies listed on major North American stock exchanges. Stockcalc also contains numerous tools to understand what the stocks you are investing in are worth. Globe Unlimited subscribers can subscribe to Stockcalc using the promo code ‘Globe30,’ which offers a 30-day free trial and special pricing for the second month.

Why has gold risen so much in 2025?

There are a number of factors that have contributed to the 41-per-cent rise in the price per ounce of gold over the past 12 months. To start, we are seeing record gold purchases by central banks (especially in China, India, Russia and emerging markets) as a means of reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar and increasing reserves in hard assets amid geopolitical tensions.

Other factors include inflation, real interest rates, recession fears and debt concerns. Inflation remains above central bank targets in many regions, even as growth slows. Real interest rates are lower than they appear, making gold more attractive despite the fact it has no yield. Rate cut expectations result in a weaker U.S. dollar, which boosts gold demand in non-U.S. dollar terms.

Gold hits another record high as markets brace for further rate cuts

Growing fears of a U.S. or global recession and concerns about ballooning debt levels also fuel demand for hard assets.

These factors have all led to increased demand from retail investors, ETFs and central banks, driving the price of gold higher.

Where do analysts see it going from here?

With gold currently around US$3,700 per ounce, most analysts have revised their 2026 forecasts upward, though many now expect a more moderate increase or even stabilization after a breakout year. We are seeing a number of gold analysts with price targets for 2026 in the US$3,700 to US$4,700 range, with a cluster of them around the US$4,000 to US$4,100 level. That price expectation is helping drive valuations higher, as you will see in the table.

What we found

You can see in the accompanying table the percentage difference between each stock’s recent closing price and its intrinsic value. The “Stockcalc valuation” column is a weighted calculation derived from our models and, if used, analyst target data. Let’s look at a number of these companies:

Newmont Corp. (NGT-T) is the world’s largest gold miner. It bought Goldcorp in 2019, combined its Nevada mines in a joint venture with competitor Barrick later that year and also purchased competitor Newcrest in November, 2023. The company is expected to sell roughly 5.9 million ounces of gold in 2025. Our models show Newmont still has considerable upside over the next 12 months (along with Barrick, another large cap producer in this space).

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM-T) and Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-T) are royalty and streaming companies. They invest funds into developing or producing companies in exchange for a royalty stream. By using this model, they have indirect operational exposure. The royalty stream they get back can be physical metals or a percentage of revenue. Our overall valuation still shows more than 15-per-cent upside for both of these stocks over the next 12 months.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T), Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T) and Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG-T) have all moved up more than 100 per cent in the past 12 months. Our models show a more modest difference in valuation versus current price for these equities.

Agnico Eagle has mines in Canada, Mexico, Finland and Australia and is expected to produce between 3.3 and 3.5 million ounces in 2025. Kinross Gold is a Canadian-based gold producer, with 2.1 million gold equivalent ounces in 2024. Lundin Gold is focused on its Fruta del Norte gold operation in Ecuador and developing its portfolio of other mineral concessions in that country. They are expected to produce between 490,000 and 525,000 ounces of gold in 2025.

Investing involves risk. Stockcalc accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this analysis.

Brian Donovan, CBV, is the president of Stockcalc, a Canadian fintech based in Miramichi, N.B. He holds a position in WPM.