Jefferies’ Chris Wood sees value emerging if gold prices fall another 15%. Here’s why
Gold prices: Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, believes a further correction is likely in gold prices, which would make them more attractive for long-term calculation.
According to Wood, this level would coincide with the 200-day moving average (DMA), requiring gold to correct another 16% from current levels.
Gold prices have crashed over 8% from the all-time peak of $4,381.5/oz on October 20, 2025. This peak, Chris Wood explained in the latest Greed & fear report, was 33.3% above the prevailing 200-DMA, a key indicator used by investors to gauge long-term trends. Such a divergence from the average tends to suggest that the asset has been performing strongly, potentially entering overbought territory.
To put this into historical perspective, the last time gold was this far above its 200-day moving average was May 2006, when it peaked at US$730.4 per ounce — around 37–39% higher than its long-term average at the time.
Currently, the 200-day moving average of gold stands at US$3,371 per ounce, which is 23% below the recent peak. Wood suggests that this level could provide a potentially attractive buying opportunity should the metal experience a correction.
“With the 200-day moving average currently at US$3,371/oz or 23.1% below the peak, this, in GREED & fear’s view, is a good level to accumulate more gold if bullion corrects further, which is certainly possible,” said Wood.
With gold currently trading at around US$4,012 per ounce, a decline of roughly 16% would be needed to reach the 200-day moving average, creating a zone that long-term investors might consider for accumulation, as per the market veteran.
Jobs data makes gold a compelling bet
Wood further believes that the investment case for gold has been improved by the latest Challenger Report on US job cut announcements, which has provided evidence of a weakening labour market.
The US economy shed jobs in October amid losses in the government and retail sectors, while cost-cutting measures and the adoption of artificial intelligence by businesses led to a surge in announced layoffs, data showed on Thursday, according to a Reuters report.
A weak jobs market typically makes rate cuts more likely by the US Federal Reserve, which in turn boosts bullion’s appeal.
Wood sees gold at $6600 in long term
Over the longer term, Jefferies’ analyst sees gold climbing to as high as $6600, based on historical benchmarks and the growth in US disposable income per capita.
Wood argues that if gold were to again represent 9.9% of US disposable income per capita, as it did at the peak of the last secular bull market in January 1980, the bullion’s price would need to rise to $6,571/oz — effectively setting a new target of $6,600/oz for this current secular bull market, Woods had said in the GREED & fear report in September.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
