No payrolls, no problem as stocks hit record highs

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) -World stocks were on course for a solid weekly gain and more record highs, as the seemingly unstoppable rally in tech shares and expectations of lower U.S. interest rates helped offset U.S. government shutdown uncertainty.

Investors have mostly shrugged off the shutdown, the 15th since 1981, but on Friday it meant traders weren’t getting probably the single most-watched piece of market moving economic data – monthly U.S. payrolls figures.

MSCI’s main 47-country index of world shares didn’t seem fussed with overnight record highs on Wall Street and in Europe on Thursday, where equities are having their best week since April. [.EU]

Euro zone services sector PMIs helped the euro tick up too on Friday as they accelerated to an eight-month high thanks to moderate growth in Germany, Italy and Spain, although France’s political uncertainty continued to weigh there.

U.S. economist at Natixis, Christopher Hodge, said the lack of payrolls data later in some ways bolstered the current view among forecasters that U.S. interest rates will be cut again this month.

“The baseline (of a rate cut) is the default in the absence of new information,” Hodge said, adding the markets have also had plenty of practice now with dealing with U.S. shutdowns.

“The only thing that could be different this time is that we are in an economic and policy cycle that is a lot more ambiguous.”

Benchmark government bond yields – the main driver of global borrowing costs – nudged higher in both the U.S. and the euro zone, although they dropped in the UK after poor PMI data there, and all were down for the week.

Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point Fed rate cut this month and at least four cuts by the end of 2026.

GOING FOR GOLD

The overnight rise in MSCI’s main Asian share index meant it closed with a 2.3% weekly gain and has now risen about 23% this year.

China and some other parts of Asia had been closed for a holiday, meaning trading was thinner than usual although Taiwan hit a record high and Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.5% ahead of the crucial weekend vote that will determine the country’s next prime minister. [.T]

Wall Street futures were pointing higher again too. All three major U.S. indexes had closed at fresh peaks on Thursday, buoyed as insatiable investor enthusiasm for all things AI continued. [.N]

Weiheng Chen, global investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said investors appear willing to give Washington time to resolve its disagreements, though a prolonged shutdown may start to move markets.

“For now, investors remain more focused on the potential impacts of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, trade and immigration policy, economic data, and corporate earnings,” Chen said.

With no government reports on the labour market to take cues from, investors have turned to alternative data from public and private sources and so far they point to a sluggish U.S. labour market.

That has left the dollar under pressure. The dollar index, which measures it against six other top currencies, was sagging again in Europe and on course for its biggest weekly drop since August. [/FRX]

The Japanese yen has been the biggest beneficiary of the dollar’s dip although it weakened 0.3% to 147.74 per dollar on Friday after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left markets guessing on when it will next hike interest rates.

In commodities, oil prices recovered slightly on the day but were on course for their steepest weekly drop in over three months. Brent crude futures was at $64.81 a barrel with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude at $61.30 a barrel.

Precious metal gold, meanwhile, was up and on course for its seventh straight week of gains at $3,860, after hitting a new record of $3,896 an ounce on Thursday.

It is viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty and thrives on low interest rates. It has now surged 47% this year. [GOL/]

“As the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency is tested, gold is emerging as the pre-eminent safe haven and we continue to view it as the ultimate diversifier,” said Greg Hirt, global CIO for multi asset at AllianzGI.

(Additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Susan Fenton)